From the NY Times, by conservative columnist David Brooks (with a tip of my hat to Wayne Price of NEFAC):

“Foreign policy experts are trained in the art of analysis, extrapolation and linear thinking.  They simply have no tools to analyze moments that are non-linear, paradigm-shifting, and involve radical shifts in consciousness (emphasis mine).  As a result they almost invariably underestimate how rapid change might be and how quickly it might come.  As Michael McFaul, who serves on the National Security Council, once wrote, “In retrospect, all revolutions seem inevitable.  Beforehand, all revolutions seem impossible.”

Yes JD- “In retrospect, all revolutions seem inevitable.  Beforehand, all revolutions seem impossible.”

Batter up.